Target Setting · SBTi
SBTi Near-Term Target Calculator | ACA 1.5°C Decarbonization Pathway
Compute Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) compliant near-term emissions reduction targets using the Absolute Contraction Approach (ACA). Generates Scope 1+2 trajectories at 1.5°C pathway minimums (4.2%/yr) and Scope 3 trajectories at well-below-2°C minimums (2.5%/yr), with full year-by-year reduction schedule, materiality assessment, and net-zero reference.
Absolute Contraction Approach (ACA) — the dominant SBTi method (>90% of validated companies). Target emissions are calculated by applying a fixed annual reduction rate to the base year emissions over the target period:
Target emissions = Base year emissions × (1 − annual_reduction_rate)years
Required reduction % = 1 − (1 − annual_rate)years
Minimum annual reduction rates (1.5°C pathway):
Scope 1+2: 4.2%/year (linear annual contraction)
Scope 3: 2.5%/year (well-below-2°C minimum)
Scope 3 materiality rule: A Scope 3 target is required if Scope 3 emissions represent ≥40% of total (Scope 1 + 2 + 3) baseline emissions. When required, the target must cover ≥67% of total Scope 3 emissions.
Target window: Targets must end 5–10 years from the submission year. Companies have a 24-month commitment window from signing the SBTi commitment letter to validation submission.
Net-zero reference: The long-term SBTi Net-Zero Standard requires ~90% absolute reduction by 2050 (relative to base year), with residual emissions neutralised. Shown here as a directional reference, not a near-term target.
Reference: SBTi Corporate Near-Term Criteria v5.3.1 (April 2026), ACA update April 29 2026, GHG Protocol Corporate Standard, IPCC AR6 WG3.
Most recent complete inventory year (2015–2025).
5–10 years from the 2026 submission window.
SBTi 1.5°C minimum: 4.2%/yr Scope 1+2, 2.5%/yr Scope 3.
From your GHG inventory: direct on-site emissions.
Purchased electricity, steam, heat, cooling.
All upstream and downstream value-chain emissions.
Enter baseline emissions to calculate your SBTi targets
Scope 1+2 targets are always required. Scope 3 targets become required if Scope 3 ≥40% of total emissions.
The Science Based Targets initiative requires companies to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions at a minimum of 4.2% per year to stay on a 1.5°C pathway. Most companies have the baseline. Almost none have modelled the trajectory.
This calculator applies the Absolute Contraction Approach (ACA) — the method used by over 90% of validated SBTi companies — to your actual emissions inventory and shows you exactly what you need to achieve, year by year, to earn validation.
Your SBTi near-term target requires a reduction of [1 − (1 − 0.042)n] from baseline by your target year, where n is the number of years between base and target. Over a 10-year window, that compounds to a 34.9% absolute reduction in Scope 1+2 emissions. Scope 3 — required if it represents 40% or more of your total inventory — uses a 2.5% annual rate (well-below-2°C pathway), with at least 67% of total Scope 3 emissions covered by the target.
Use the Scope 1 Stationary Combustion Calculator to calculate audit-grade emissions from on-site fuel combustion before entering your total above. The two calculators share the same MasterBrain data layer, so factor versions stay aligned across your inventory and your target.
We do not hide our math. Read the complete methodology — including the ACA formula derivation, the 4.2% rate’s IPCC AR6 origin, and the April 2026 ACA update — to prepare your validation submission.
Read Full Methodology Whitepaper →
What is the SBTi Absolute Contraction Approach?
The Absolute Contraction Approach (ACA) is the dominant target-setting method under the Science Based Targets initiative. It applies a fixed annual percentage reduction to your base year emissions, compounded over the target window. Over 90% of SBTi-validated companies use ACA — the alternative, the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA), is restricted to a small number of homogeneous sectors such as power generation, cement, and aluminium.
The formula the calculator above implements is:
For Scope 1+2 the minimum annual rate is 4.2%, derived from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C pathway envelope assuming a linear contraction to net zero. For Scope 3 the minimum is 2.5%, aligned with a well-below-2°C trajectory. The ACA’s strength is its transparency — every target is auditable from baseline, rate, and target year alone, with no sector-specific intensity benchmarks to dispute. Its weakness is the same: it ignores sector-level decarbonisation pathways and treats a steel mill the same as a software company.
Because the rate compounds against a shrinking baseline. In year one you cut 4.2% of your total. In year two you cut 4.2% of what’s left, not of the original. By year ten the cumulative reduction is 34.9%, not 42% — the gap widens every year. This is why a “4.2% per year” target is meaningfully easier than a “42% by 2035” target sounds. Plan against the trajectory, not the headline.
For the underlying boundary rules and scope definitions, see the GHG Protocol Corporate Standard. For the long-term trajectory the near-term target sits within, see the SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard.
How to choose your base year and target year
SBTi accepts any base year from 2015 to the most recent complete fiscal year for which you have an audited GHG inventory. Picking the most recent year possible is usually correct: it gives you the cleanest data, the shortest trajectory, and the smallest absolute reduction obligation. The exception is when you have already made significant reductions since an earlier year — in that case, an older base year lets you bank that progress against the target.
The target year must end 5–10 years from the year you submit for validation. For a 2026 submission, valid target years run from 2031 to 2036. Choosing the maximum 10-year window gives the gentlest annual rate but the largest cumulative reduction obligation; choosing the minimum 5-year window compresses the timeline. The calculator above auto-constrains the target year selector to the valid range based on submission year.
A 5-year target means a smaller absolute reduction (about 19%) but the deadline is in three CFO budget cycles’ time. A 10-year target means a larger absolute reduction (about 35%) but each annual step is gentler and your team has time to execute capex projects, supplier engagement, and electrification programmes. Rule of thumb: if you have an established decarbonisation roadmap, pick 10 years and pace the work. If you don’t yet, pick 5 — you’ll be forced to build the roadmap in year one, and you can always set a longer target after the first one validates.
Two operational details often missed: SBTi gives you a 24-month commitment window from signing the commitment letter to validation submission — the deadline chip in the calculator results tracks this. And fiscal year handling: if your reporting year doesn’t match the calendar year, use the fiscal year label your inventory uses (FY2024, etc.) consistently across the commitment letter, the inventory, and the validated target.
When is a Scope 3 target required?
SBTi requires a Scope 3 target if Scope 3 emissions represent 40% or more of your total inventory (Scope 1 + Scope 2 + Scope 3 combined). For most companies — particularly in retail, financial services, technology, and consumer goods — Scope 3 dwarfs the operational footprint, and a Scope 3 target is mandatory. For heavy industry with large on-site combustion or process emissions, Scope 3 may fall below the threshold and a Scope 3 target becomes optional. The calculator above runs this materiality check live as you enter values.
If a Scope 3 target is required, it must cover at least 67% of total Scope 3 emissions. Coverage is measured against your full screened Scope 3 inventory, not against the categories you have data for — this distinction trips many companies. If you have detailed data on Cat 1 (Purchased Goods) and Cat 11 (Use of Sold Products) but those two combined only account for 50% of your screened Scope 3, you need to expand boundary or improve estimation methods to close the gap. Spend-based factors are acceptable for filling the coverage gap during the target-setting phase, even if you plan to upgrade to activity-based data later.
The 40% number is the materiality test — does Scope 3 matter enough that ignoring it would give a misleading picture of your company’s footprint? The 67% number is the coverage rule — once Scope 3 matters, your target must include enough of it to actually move the needle. Setting a target that covers only your “easy” Scope 3 categories (office paper, business travel) while ignoring the hard ones (purchased goods, use of sold products) defeats the point. SBTi forces you to bite off two-thirds of the elephant.
Scope 3 targets are also increasingly expected even when the 40% threshold isn’t crossed — major investors and CDP scoring now penalise companies with material Scope 3 exposure who set Scope 1+2 targets only. Treat the 40% rule as a floor, not a ceiling. For the underlying category definitions and screening methodology, see the GHG Protocol Scope 3 Standard.
Minimum ambition levels: 1.5°C vs well-below-2°C
SBTi maintains three validated ambition tiers. Pick one based on your sector’s Paris-alignment expectations and your internal decarbonisation capacity:
| Pathway | Scope 1+2 rate | Scope 3 rate | Validation status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5°C (minimum) | 4.2%/yr | 2.5%/yr | SBTi validated |
| Accelerated 1.5°C | 5.0%/yr | 3.0%/yr | SBTi validated |
| SBTi Leadership | 7.0%/yr | 4.2%/yr | SBTi Leadership badge |
The 4.2% Scope 1+2 floor is not arbitrary. It is the linear annual contraction required to halve emissions globally by 2030 from a 2020 baseline, the central condition of the IPCC AR6 WG3 1.5°C pathway envelope with limited or no overshoot. The 2.5% Scope 3 floor sits one notch lower because value-chain emissions are harder to control directly and the well-below-2°C bracket grants more flexibility. For the underlying climate science and pathway derivation, see IPCC AR6.
The Leadership tier doesn’t change the validation outcome — your target is still SBTi-validated either way — but it earns a separate Leadership designation in the SBTi public registry, which carries weight in CDP scoring and ESG investor screens.
Worked Example — Acme Manufacturing, 2023 → 2033 at 1.5°C minimum
This worked example reproduces the full ACA arithmetic for a typical mid-cap manufacturer, side-by-side at all three ambition tiers. The user can reproduce these exact numbers in the calculator above and verify against the methodology page.
How to read your emissions trajectory
The trajectory table generated above shows your absolute emissions for every year from base to target, with the percentage reduction from baseline at each step. The compounding effect is the most important pattern to recognise: the year-on-year delta starts small and grows over the trajectory. A 4.2% rate cuts emissions by 4.2% in year one, but by year ten the cumulative reduction is 34.9%, not 42%, because each year’s reduction is applied to a smaller base.
Use the trajectory as your annual planning anchor. If you missed your year-three target, the year-four obligation doesn’t reset — the trajectory line is fixed at submission, and missing a year means a steeper required reduction in the following year to recover. Companies that treat the target as a “by 2030” line item rather than a year-by-year budget tend to face panic-driven offset purchases in the final two years. The trajectory exists precisely to prevent this.
For internal use, export the trajectory as CSV (button below the results) and load it directly into your sustainability dashboard. Each yearly row becomes a board-level KPI.
Common SBTi target-setting mistakes
The five most frequent reasons SBTi rejects or returns submitted targets for revision. Each carries the validator language in the rejection notice — recognise the pattern before submission, not after.
SBTi validation: what comes after target-setting
Calculating the target is the easy part. Validation is a 30–60 day review process by SBTi staff against the published Corporate Net-Zero Standard and the relevant near-term criteria. Reviewers focus on three things: inventory completeness (does the base year cover the full operational and reporting boundary?), method appropriateness (is ACA the right choice for your sector, or should you be using SDA?), and Scope 3 coverage (does the target meet the 67% threshold against the full screened inventory?).
Validation unlocks substantive downstream value. CDP scoring weights validated SBTi targets heavily — typically a one-letter improvement in the climate change score. Major institutional investors increasingly screen for SBTi validation as a baseline requirement. EU CSRD-reporting companies use SBTi validation as evidence of transition plan credibility under ESRS E1. Procurement teams in regulated supply chains (automotive, pharmaceuticals, retail) also use SBTi validation as a supplier qualification gate.
For verification of the underlying inventory used to set the target, third-party assurance to ISO 14064-1 is not strictly required by SBTi but is increasingly expected by validators when inventory completeness is non-obvious. Plan for ISO 14064-3 verification of the baseline inventory as a parallel workstream during the 24-month commitment window.
What’s next? Completing your target-setting workflow
You have completed the SBTi near-term target calculation — the binding planning anchor for the next 5–10 years. Three further workstreams typically follow before validation submission:
SBTi requires both a near-term and a long-term net-zero target for full validation. The near-term anchors the next decade; the long-term anchors the 2050 commitment. Both are validated independently against the same Corporate Net-Zero Standard.
Frequently Asked Questions
No. SBTi caps the base year at 2015 for near-term targets to ensure consistency with the Paris Agreement reference period and to prevent companies from claiming pre-Paris reductions that pre-date modern inventory standards. If you have credible inventory data before 2015 (e.g. for sectoral pathway modelling or internal use), keep it as a reference but use 2015 or later as your validated SBTi base year.
Close the gap before submission. The standard route is to use spend-based or industry-average emission factors for the categories where you lack activity data, then upgrade to activity-based factors over time as supplier engagement programmes mature. SBTi accepts this provided the methodology is documented and the upgrade path is stated. Submitting a target that covers less than 67% with no closure plan will be rejected.
ACA is the default and works for any sector. The Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA) is restricted to a small set of eligible homogeneous sectors — power generation, iron and steel, cement, aluminium, pulp and paper, and a handful of others — where SBTi has published sector-specific intensity benchmarks. If your sector has an SDA pathway available, you may use it instead of ACA, and it sometimes produces a less stringent target. For everyone else, ACA is the only validated method. This calculator implements ACA only.
Yes. The April 29 2026 ACA update primarily clarified base-year-to-net-zero adjustment treatment and the interaction between near-term and net-zero pathway alignment — the core 4.2% / 2.5% rates and the 5–10 year target window remain unchanged. The calculator’s underlying constants and the methodology page reference the post-update criteria. The version stamp in the meta header above tracks any future criteria updates.
The near-term target (5–10 years out) and the long-term net-zero target (by 2050) are two separate validated commitments under the SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard. The near-term target is the binding planning anchor for the next decade; the net-zero reference (90% absolute reduction from baseline by 2050) is shown in the calculator results to confirm your near-term trajectory is directionally consistent with the long-term commitment. A near-term target that achieves only 30% reduction by 2035 is not on a credible 90%-by-2050 path and validators will flag the gap.
The calculator outputs are directly usable as inputs to the transition plan disclosure under ESRS E1, particularly E1-4 (Targets related to climate change mitigation). EU companies subject to CSRD increasingly use SBTi-validated targets as the primary evidence of a credible transition plan. The trajectory table CSV export aligns with the year-by-year disclosure requirements under ESRS E1 datapoints. For the full disclosure mapping, see CSRD / ESRS E1.
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Pair this calculator with the inventory tools that feed your baseline and the land-sector calculator that handles AFOLU emissions and removals — required for full SBTi compliance in food, agriculture, and forest-sector companies.